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PM-003

Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

Intensive 5-day course · English, Arabic & European languages

Energy sector planning requires accurate cost predictions and risk management. This programme teaches project managers and analysts to evaluate capital projects using economic valuation. Delegates build cashflow models, apply decision trees, and run Monte Carlo simulations. The training covers probability concepts and sensitivity analysis to help teams justify their investments.

Classroom

Public courses in our cities

  • 26–30 Oct 2026Manama£3,080 + VAT
  • 9–13 Nov 2026Rome£3,400 + VAT
  • 23–27 Nov 2026Dubai£4,200 + VAT
  • 14–18 Dec 2026Munich£3,400 + VAT
  • 28 Dec – 1 Jan 2026Riyadh£4,200 + VAT
  • 4–8 Jan 2027Frankfurt£2,600 + VAT
Show 23 more dates
  • 18–22 Jan 2027Amman£3,400 + VAT
  • 1–5 Feb 2027Barcelona£3,080 + VAT
  • 15–19 Feb 2027Madrid£3,400 + VAT
  • 8–12 Mar 2027Barcelona£3,080 + VAT
  • 22–26 Mar 2027Berlin£3,400 + VAT
  • 12–16 Apr 2027Rome£3,400 + VAT
  • 26–30 Apr 2027Milan£3,400 + VAT
  • 10–14 May 2027Munich£3,400 + VAT
  • 24–28 May 2027Malaga£3,080 + VAT
  • 7–11 Jun 2027Frankfurt£2,600 + VAT
  • 21–25 Jun 2027Sarajevo£3,400 + VAT
  • 5–9 Jul 2027Barcelona£3,080 + VAT
  • 19–23 Jul 2027Dubai£4,200 + VAT
  • 9–13 Aug 2027Barcelona£3,080 + VAT
  • 23–27 Aug 2027Riyadh£4,200 + VAT
  • 13–17 Sep 2027Rome£3,400 + VAT
  • 27 Sep – 1 Oct 2027Doha£4,200 + VAT
  • 11–15 Oct 2027Munich£3,400 + VAT
  • 25–29 Oct 2027Geneva£4,200 + VAT
  • 1–5 Nov 2027Frankfurt£2,600 + VAT
  • 15–19 Nov 2027Abu Dhabi£4,200 + VAT
  • 6–10 Dec 2027Barcelona£3,080 + VAT
  • 20–24 Dec 2027Cairo£2,280 + VAT

Group discount: 2 delegates 20% · 3 delegates 35% · 5 or more delegates 50%

Can't make these dates? We can run this course for your team on dates that suit you. Ask for custom dates · In-house options

Online (live)

With a trainer, on dates to suit your team

This course can be taught live online by a trainer, in English, Arabic or any European language, for one person or a whole team.

£1,850 + VAT

Group discount: 2 delegates 20% · 3 delegates 35% · 5 or more delegates 50%

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Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

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Course overview

Predicting costs and assessing profitability are huge challenges. Early capital planning relies on them. If a team fails to evaluate these risks, the organisation can suffer heavy, sometimes catastrophic financial losses that could have been avoided. This training gives analysts technical methods for executing upstream sector projects safely.

Delegates study development economics. This covers inflation, project financing, and expected monetary value. They look at probability concepts, Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL), and decision tree analysis to compare design alternatives.

The sessions focus on building models. Delegates use Microsoft Excel and the @Risk add-on. They run Monte Carlo simulations, create Tornado diagrams, and produce probabilistic cashflow reports to support their operational decisions.

Course objectives

By the end of the course, delegates will be able to:

  1. Manage uncertainty in projects and define economic terms
  2. Use the expected value concept in decision tree analysis
  3. Explain risk aversion, expected theory concepts, and risk premium
  4. Apply spreadsheet skills using the @RISK simulation software
  5. Evaluate projects with cashflow analysis and common economic indicators
  6. Run a full economic study using risk and sensitivity analysis

Who should attend

This course suits:

  • Planning managers and project managers
  • Analysts and economists
  • Commercial managers and business advisors
  • Government officials and geologists
  • Asset managers and E&P managers
  • Product managers and project management professionals

Training methodology

  • Presentations and short videos form the core of the course.
  • Delegates participate in active class discussions.
  • The training includes hands-on quantitative problem-solving using PCs.
  • Delegates use Microsoft Excel and the @Risk module.

Daily agenda

  1. Day 1

    Economics of Development

    • A short history of energy use
    • Development economics principles
    • Economic terms explained
    • How inflation affects real and nominal cashflows
    • Project financing
  2. Day 2

    Investment Uncertainty

    • Managing uncertainty in capital projects
    • Probability concepts
    • Expected value features and pitfalls
    • Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
    • Expected Profitability Index (EPI)
    • Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)
  3. Day 3

    Risks

    • Uncertainty and risk
    • Risk premium and aversion
    • Threats and opportunities in exploration projects
    • Criteria for economic decisions
    • Analysing a decision tree
    • Distribution of probability
    • Simulation using Monte Carlo methods
  4. Day 4

    Excel Spreadsheets

    • Spreadsheet calculation methods
    • Analysing cashflow
    • Calculations for sensitivity analysis
    • Tornado diagrams
    • Monte Carlo simulations using @Risk
  5. Day 5

    Using @Risk

    • Building an integrated economic model
    • Analysis using an @Risk model
    • Project sensitivity analysis with @Risk data
    • Final review and close of the course

Certificate

Every delegate who completes the course receives an ARUK Training Certificate of Attendance.

Frequently asked questions

How do I register?

Choose a date and city in the schedule and press Register, or send us an enquiry. Our team confirms your place and sends an invoice.

Are fees shown with VAT?

Fees are shown per delegate and exclude VAT, which is added to the invoice where applicable.

Can this course be delivered for our team only?

Yes. Any ARUK course can be delivered in-house at your premises, in a meeting room we book for you, or 1-to-1.

Is this course available online?

Yes. We run it live online with a trainer, on dates that suit your team, for £1,850 + VAT per delegate.

Is there a group discount?

Yes. 20% for 2 delegates, 35% for 3 delegates and 50% for 5 or more delegates on the same course.

Can the course be delivered in Arabic or another language?

Yes. Our courses can be delivered in English, Arabic or any European language, by a trainer who teaches in that language. Mention your preferred language when you register or enquire.

What certificate will I receive?

An ARUK Training Certificate of Attendance.

Related courses

Register

Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

Key booking terms (read before you register)
  • The full fee is paid in advance, before the course starts.
  • Cancel in writing 30 or more days before the start date (45 for in-house) for a refund. Later than that, the full fee is payable.
  • No refund for non-attendance or partial attendance.
  • Places are for the named delegate only; another person cannot attend instead.
  • Moving to another date or city is only possible if ARUK agrees in writing.
  • Travel, accommodation and visas are your responsibility. A refused visa does not change the cancellation terms.

booking terms and conditions

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Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis